Формула безопасности Северной Европы

Abstract

The article analyses the complex influence of dangerous changes, which took place after 2014 in the international political environment in Europe, on the ongoing transformations, suggests essential revision of national policies of the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Sweden and Finland) in the field of their security and defenсe. The degree of military and political tension in the North of Europe has increased significantly after 2014. The conflict is escalating due to additional deployment within the so-called reinforcement of the “eastern flank” of the Alliance with three allied battalions, and NATO weapons in the Baltic States and Poland. However, great strategic stability in the zone of direct contact between NATO and Russia is still possible to maintain. The international political situation in the subregion has also deteriorated markedly as a result of the U.S., NATO and EU sanctions policy against Russia, strengthening of transatlantic relations of the Nordic countries, and reinforcement of allied ties within the framework of the Western bloc policy as a whole. It noted signified not only a revision in favor of further strengthening of transatlantic ties in the policy of bloc allegiance of the Nordic countries – members of NATO (Denmark, Norway, Iceland), but also an obvious intensification of practical cooperation between formally non-aligned states (Sweden and Finland) with the Alliance structures. The Nordic Defenсe Cooperation (NORDEFCO) has also started to acquire a risky pro-Atlantic style, losing its previous autonomous subregional nature. Apparently, in the present complex situation, the Nordic Five is disposed to solve security and defence problems by: 1) having a greater many-sided cooperation with NATO; 2) giving a real, limited meaning to the European Union in the military-political sphere; 3) continuing to bear pressure upon Russia for the purpose of limiting Russian influence in the subregion, especially in the Baltic region. In the near future, the problem of NATO accession for Sweden and Finland may remain in the same precarious condition unless some dangerous force majeure circumstances occur in the Baltic region.