Центральная Европа: возможные сценарии

Abstract

The article attempts to assess the possible prospects for the development of the Central European countries. For this purpose, the main economic trends of the Visegrad countries are analyzed, taking into account current forecasts of their future economic growth. Problems of inflation, unemployment, labor productivity are considered. Possible structural shifts in the “four” and the importance of the secondary sector as one of the foundations of its economy are assessed. The resource base of future development is analyzed taking into account demographic trends and investment resources, the foreign component of which is one of the key factors of the Visegrad countries economic growth. One of the most pressing issues of future development is meeting the needs for energy resources, which is still difficult to assess and will have a significant impact on the prospects of the region. The innovation sector is one of the weaknesses of the Central European countries, development dynamics of which indicates that the region is lagging behind and that the situation will continue in the future, which also determines its future development. For the comprehensive assessment of the region SWOT analysis is carries out, classifying the main external and internal conditions and development factors. The analysis made it possible to identify three generalized possible scenarios for the development of the region: “negative”, “basic” and “optimistic”. The base scenarios don’t exclude “mixed” options for the prospects of the Visegrad countries. In addition, for individual members of the “four” their own scenario is possible, which differs from other countries of the region due to the peculiarities of a particular state. Future scenarios influence the relation with Russia, ties with which are already changing significantly.