미중경쟁과 동북아 지역질서 시나리오

Abstract

How will the US-China competition reshape the regional order in Northeast Asia? This study analyzes scenarios of US-China competition, focusing on military and economic variables, and examines their implications for regional order. Economic interdependence and military deterrence are means of US-China competition. The balance of military deterrence will be the foremost factor defining the economic relationship between the US and China and neighboring countries. Under the condition of maintaining a deterrent balance, (1) if interdependence continues, competitive interdependence will be formed, but (2) the US or Chinese camp system can be structured along with decoupling. On the other hand, if the deterrent balance collapses, (3) conflictual readjustment of mutual dependence is inevitable, but (4) with decoupling, a Chinese sphere of influence may be formed. The scenario of the end state of the US-China competition provides two implications for Korea's national strategy as a middle country. A security strategy that contributes to the deterrence balance between the US and China is a key task for maintaining an uncomfortable peace. And in order to manage an interdependent system where competition and cooperation coexist, it is necessary to seek the role of a cooperation with in-between powers.