中国水资源-能源-粮食-支撑系统安全测度及协调发展

Abstract

探索我国水资源-能源-粮食-支撑系统安全及时空演变规律，有利于促进中国水资源-能源-粮食-经济社会-管理维护的可持续发展。采用模糊物元法和耦合协调度模型，借助ArcGIS空间分析及核密度和基尼系数、变异系数，对我国31个省、市、自治区2004-2017年水资源-能源-粮食-经济社会-管理维护安全水平及耦合协调度进行测算及时空对比分析。结果表明：①时间上，我国安全测度指数总体呈上升趋势；空间上，我国安全测度水平除青海、西藏外普遍较好；②各子系统情况：经济社会子系统增长较快、水资源子系统水平较差、粮食安全指数变差、能源子系统分化现象显著、管理维护小幅度提升；③我国安全测度协调度2004年0.170提高至2017年0.348，总体呈上升趋势；④安全测度协调度的空间演化基本可以分为上升型、下降型、平滑型和波动型四类，以波动型居多。;In order to promote the sustainable development of water resources-energy-food-support system security in China, we explore security of water resources-energy-food and its spatio-temporal development regularity in China. In this paper, the fuzzy matter-element method and the coupling coordination degree model are used to calculate and analyze the water resources-energy-food ecological security level and coupling coordination degree of 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China from 2004 to 2017 by using ArcGIS spatial analysis, core density, Gini coefficient and variation coefficient. The results showed that:① in terms of time, security index of China was on the rise; in terms of space, China's security index level was generally good except Qinghai and Tibet. ② The economic and social subsystem grew rapidly, the level of water resources subsystem and the index of food security were poor. The energy subsystem is differentiated significantly and small improvement in management and maintenance.③ The coordination degree of security in China increased from 0.170 in 2004 to 0.348 in 2017, showing an overall upward trend. ④ The spatial evolution of the coordination degree of security could be divided into four types:ascending type, descending type, smooth type, and undulating type.