Количественная оценка глобального потепления

Abstract

The paper presents a summary table of global warming energy patterns calculated using historical natural data accumulated by the world science. The analysis shows that in each successive decade contribution of the positive feedbacks to global warming is increasing as compared to the preceding decade. Each kilowatt-hour of energy produced and used by the humanity warms up our planet through the human-caused greenhouse effect by 18 kWh. The dependence functions of the radiative temperature equilibrium on the content of the three main greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been derived. We propose functions for the dependence of the amount of accumulated thermal energy in the Earth's climatic system and the duration of global warming on the amount of the man-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. A forecast of the global sea level rise and the marginal frequency of natural disasters over time is provided. If the mankind has halved greenhouse gas emissions by 2060, the global warming will progress for about 210 years until it reaches the radiation equilibrium temperature of 4,2°C. By following this scenario, it will be possible to prevent a possible additional warming of the atmosphere by about 4,7°C in the future.