Оценка импортозависимости российской экономики

Abstract

At the stage of radical restructuring of the Russian economy, driven by the need not only to confront external challenges and threats but also to prove its effectiveness, the issue of the content and assessment of the level of its import dependence has become particularly relevant. Despite the fact that the nature of import dependence is directly related to the presence of an import in the foreign trade balance of each country participating in international exchange, its assessment cannot be based only on the consideration of absolute and relative import indicators. Import dependence should be assessed as a complex phenomenon that integrates a set of parameters that reflect the priorities for the development of a technologically independent, advanced economy. A system of assessment parameters and their criteria has been developed, the simultaneous observance of which signals a decrease in the import dependence of the economy and, at the same time, an increase in the effectiveness of the import substitution processes occurring in it. Testing of the proposed methodological approach to assessment of the level of import dependence of the Russian economy, carried out on the basis of official statistical information using dynamic analysis, made it possible to identify time periods in which the import dependence of the country’s economy decreased. It is shown that the “window of opportunity” that opened in 2022 creates the preconditions for a sharp increase in the processes of import substitution in the Russian economy and a maximum reduction in its import dependence.