政策性农业保险补贴最优模式探析——基于“千村调查”的研究

Abstract

Premium subsidy system is an important part of policy agricultural insurance. China has set up policy agricultural insurance system for several years. The object is premium & wide coverage and low protection & guaranteed costs. But it cannot be realized if premium subsidy system is unreasonable. Based on theory of income and consumption in economics, an income-consumption model of policy agricultural insurance is built in article according to characters of Chinese rural Now, premium subsidy system of policy agricultural insurance in China adopts fixed premium subsidy ratio with threshold. Peasants must pay a part of premium otherwise they cannot get premium subsidies from governments, which is called participation, no subsidies. In such system, income-consumption model shows that consumption of policy agricultural insurance will increase firstly and decrease later if peasant family income increases, while consumption of commercial insurance will increase with increase in peasant family income. The real premium ratio of commercial insurance keeps dropping and is obviously lower than actual premium rate of policy agricultural insurance, as those commercial insurance companies always provide different kinds of discounts or convenient services. So, two hypothesizes are made according to results of theory model.Using data from Thousands Villages Investigation (TVI) of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SUFE) in 2015, we test these two hypothesizes of theory model. In every summer holiday, SUFE organizes teachers and students to join TVI, which began from 2008. By 2015 it has lasted eight years. The investigation topic of 2015 is the coverage and usage of basic finance services in rural market. 30 teachers and 1 418 students investigated 31 provinces in China except Hongkong, Taiwan and Macao. Finally, there are 663 valid village questionnaires and 14 339 peasant household valid questionnaires. Some statistical models are used to analyze data of TVI. Some adjustments are made in order to change those qualitative data from questionnaires to quantitative data for statistical models. LOWESS is used firstly to intuitively show relationship among consumption of policy agricultural insurance, consumption of commercial insurance and peasant family income. OLS regression model is used later to get deep relationship among those variables. With data analysis, we find that relationship is really looked as a reversed U between consumption of policy agricultural insurance and peasant family income. However, relationship is monotonically increasing between consumption of commercial insurance and peasant family income. So, not only theory analysis, but also empirical analysis of TVI test these two hypothesizes. The object of policy agricultural insurance in China cannot be made true if we continue to carry out policy of fixed premium subsidy ratio with threshold. The consumption of policy agricultural insurance would decrease and even eventually disappear with increase in peasant family income. Therefore, it is very important to reform premium subsidy system in China.Excess layered subsidy system is a very good suggestion to reform premium subsidy system in China. It is a little like regressive ratio system called by other scholars. The premium subsidy ratio would decrease with increase in protection of policy agricultural insurance. For example, increase in protection of policy agricultural insurance from 40% to 100% leads to decrease in premium subsidy ratio from 100% to 20%. In this way, those poor families will get basic protection with low premium. They need not to pay any more by themselves. But those rich families would pay more if they want to get higher or full protection. The income-consumption model theoretically verifies effectiveness of excess layered subsidy system. Then, detailed system is designed according to real data of China rural Both show that excess layeredsubsidy system can improve coverage scale and overall protection of policy agricultural insurance effectively.