Терроризм в тени пандемии

Abstract

This paper examines the activities of terrorist groups during the COVID-19 pandemic. The author focuses on the comparison between the opportunities offered by the pandemic to terrorist groups and the factors hampering terrorist activities. It could be expected that extremist groups may succeed in exploiting the pandemic to increase recruitment and disruption. But the predicted surge in terrorism did not happen. Coronavirus restrictions disrupted terrorist groups’ operations, travelling and fundraising. However, in some states where the spread of the disease took place in the context of ongoing armed conflict, the terrorist threat has increased. On the whole, the socio-economic consequences of the pandemic had a negative impact on public sentiment, creating a breeding ground for radicalisation on various ideological spectrums. Far-right and Islamist extremist groups have already incorporated COVID-19 into their narratives. The pandemic has provided them with new opportunities to spread extremist propaganda and ideology. The paper shows how terrorist groups have adapted and conducted their activities during the pandemic. Some terrorist and extremist threats have shifted from physical to online environment (communications, financing, propaganda, radicalisation, recruitment, etc.), and a wide range of new technologies and tools have become much more widespread. It is likely that the pandemic, ineffective governance and the withdrawal of Western counter-terrorism contingents from hot zones will contribute to the fact that terrorism (and, in particular, militant Islamism) will remain a global threat within the foreseeable future.