생명보험 수요요인들의 인과성 변화

Abstract

This paper examined the Granger causality and changes in its intensity for Korea life insurance demand, focusing on the financial market and insurance provider factors. The significant causality ratio (SCR) in Kwon (2018), which can measure the intensity as well as the change in the significance of Granger causality, was applied. The intensity of the Granger causality of the three-year treasury bond rate, three-year AA corporate bond rate, KOSPI200 index, and number of planners was examined for each life insurance demand from January 1997 to May 2022. The change in the intensity of Granger causality for life insuance demand were visualized through the time plot of SCR by demand factor and life insurance type which are endowment, pure-endowment insurances and insurance against death, respectively. As a result, it was confirmed that the existence and intensity of Granger causality of each demand factor for each insurance type changed, and the pattern of change varies by factor and life insurance type. The factor with higher Granger causality than other periods in the global financial crisis is the interest rate and the Granger causality of the number of planners showed the opposite pattern. The Granger causality of the stock index for insurance against death was lower than that of other insurances.