Загрози фінансовій безпеці України

Abstract

Abstract. Introduction. In the conditions of deepening financial instability of our country, increasing threats to all levels of security, it is important to constantly analyze the values of the main indicators of the country's financial security and identify potential threats, since in order to implement effective mechanisms for stabilizing the financial system, it is necessary to dynamically assess the most dangerous risks for its functioning. Purpose. The purpose of the study is to identify and analyze potential threats to the country's financial security before and after a full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation through a system of indicators. Results. Based on the analysis of changes in the country's financial security indicators for the period before and after the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, dangerous zones and threats to the state's financial security were identified: the debt burden on the state budget, the level of inflation, lending by banks to the real sector of the economy, the dependence of the banking system on foreign capital and the level doubtful debt in the credit portfolio of banks. The situation is related to a full-scale war and forces Ukraine to build up debt to finance hostilities and solve important social issues in conditions of uncertainty, which in the long run, without the possibility of debt cancellation, will have a disincentive effect on the economy. The safe zone includes the share of domestic state loan bonds and international reserves. The forecast of indicators of financial security that were in the critical zone for 2023, using analytical alignment of the dynamic series, demonstrated the deterioration of the values of these indicators. Conclusions. 2022 is expected to be a critical year for most indicators of the country's financial security. It is proposed to implement transformational measures that would take into account the changes taking place in the market of financial services due to the emergence of problems, first of all, resource provision. It is recommended to regulate the regulatory and legal field regarding financial security during martial law and detailing the threats that arose during the war.