수리 가능한 체계에 대한 Upside-Down 욕조 곡선 형태의 삼분할된 고장 강도 모형

Abstract

Purpose: This study proposes an upside-down bathtub-shaped three-segmented failure intensity model for repairable systems. The procedure for estimating the parameters for the proposed model is presented under certain assumptions regarding the change points of the model.BRMethods: The proposed model comprises three failure intensity functions - one for each of the three model segments. The model is therefore a P-H-P model, with the power law process model, the homogeneous Poisson process model, and the power law process model that follows the non-homogeneous Poisson process as the failure intensity functions. The change points and the parameters of each failure intensity function were determined using maximum likelihood estimation and least squares estimation.BRResults: The case study shows that compared with other extant models, the proposed P-H-P model is more suitable in terms of log-likelihood function value, Akaike information criterion corrected, and mean squared error.BRConclusion: The proposed P-H-P model is expected to better explain the failure intensities of similar systems and to allow for more accurate reliability analysis.