Abstract
The main objective of this research is to investigate whether the RFM (recency-frequency-monetary value) information of a customer's redemption behavior of loyalty points can improve the prediction of future value of the customer. The conventional measurement of customer value has been primarily based on purchase transactions behavior although a customer's future behavior can be also influenced by other interactions between the customer and the firm such as redemption of rewards in a loyalty program. We theorize why a customer's redemption behavior can influence her future purchases and thereby the customer's total value based on operant learning theory, goal gradient hypothesis, and lock-in effect. Using a dataset from a major book store in Korea spanning three years between 2008 and 2010, we analyze both purchase transactions and redemption records of over 10,000 customers. The results show that the redemption-based RFM information does improve the prediction accuracy of the customer's future purchases. Based on this result, we also propose an improved estimate of customer lifetime value (CLV) by combining purchase transactions and loyalty points redemption data. Managerial implications will be also discussed for firms managing loyalty programs to maximize the total value customers.
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