Регионы России в конце 2023 г.: удалось ли преодолеть кризисный спад?

Abstract

Sectors of the Russian economy had different trajectories during the crisis and at the stage of recovery from it, especially in the regional dimension, the dynamics were influenced by different factors. The specialization of industry led to the accelerated growth of the military-industrial complex regions, a strong decline in the automotive industry regions or negative dynamics in regions with a high share of export products; a quarter of the regions did not overcome the decline. Fiscal impulse played an important role in construction and investment, growth accelerated compared to 2022, Far East regions with big infrastructure projects are leading. Institutional factors influenced housing construction dynamics the most, housing construction in the two largest agglomerations began to decline. The decline in retail trade has not been overcome throughout the country, especially in the agglomerations of federal cities. In public catering, growth was faster in the largest agglomerations, in regions with cities with a population of over a million and near SVO zone. The dynamics of recovery are not synchronous either by economic sector or by geographic projection. The unemployment rate in manufacturing regions is ultra-low. The dynamics of wages is influenced by the factor of economic specialization; in 2023, it grew faster in regions with a significant share of military-industrial complex sectors. Over the two-year period, household incomes did not recover in most regions of the North-West, where the main industries were hit harder by the sanctions. The state of the consolidated budgets of the regions is quite stable, but in social sectors expenditures grew more slowly.