금리가 주택가격에 미치는 영향과 요인

Abstract

This study examined the effect of CD rates on the national(regional) housing price index with the two and four variable TVC-VAR (4). The four variable model is constructed by adding domestic industrial production index and consumer price index. According to the empirical results, the effect of the CD rate on the housing prices is negative value before the Asian foreign exchange crisis, and after positive value until 2012. The relationship between CD rate and housing prices is weakened sharply with the reinforce of the low level of global interest rate and quantitative easing policies. However, the relationship between CD rate and housing prices is rebounded, after the US has finished the quantitative easing and has increased interest rate. The change between CD rate and housing prices by LTV, DTI, and real estate policies have declined slightly after the global financial crisis, while the influence on expected inflation, long-term and short-term interest rates, and domestic and overseas policy rates have become stronger clearly. Also, it was confirmed that the relationship between interest rates and house prices could be changed according to the expectation of interest rate rise. Global interest rate hikes have raised expectations for a increase in domestic interest rates. Accordingly, it is necessary to carefully consider the timing of the domestic benchmark rate hike considering the domestic economic situation and the real estate market.