Космическое измерение инновационно-технологического прорыва

Abstract

The article addresses the technological base development for the exploration and use of outer space over the current decade and the subsequent period. Primary attention is given to the USA, Russia and China. The most important disruptive emerging military and dual-use technologies are highlighted, their impact on strategic stability, national and international security is examined in terms of both opportunities and risks. A cluster of the most important and perspective space technologies is considered. The paper indicates the possibility and necessity of new agreements on exploration and use of outer space, crucial for adapting space activities to new military-strategic, military-political and technological realities against a backdrop of the innovative technological breakthroughs and the digitalization processes development. Under the conditions of the U.S. military-political leaders’ commitment to competition between great powers, special attentions are paid to the increase of the competition complex factor and development of the so-called PEMT-competition (political, economic, military and technological competition). One of its important focuses is the space activity. It is underlined in the perspective survey till 2040 that, in spite of the crisis situation in the Russian space sector at the boundary of the third decade of the 21st century, Russia has a real opportunity to remain in the category of leading space powers. Special case study of the article is the interactions between space development and strategic stability, on the one hand, and information warfare, on the other. The problems of the space systems vulnerability are also noted. The article emphasizes the fundamental nature, importance and necessity of an impending long-term revision of future global space activities, primarily from the perspective of strategic stability. But the necessity of intensive world discussions on space control is also stressed.