Abstract

The article presents an approach to identifying the procyclicality in the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The proposed method has been tested on the economic data for Russia (1996-2020). Regulation that takes into account the cyclical nature of the economy makes it possible to reduce the resonant effect of dynamic changes in the key determinants of the base cycle, as it implies identification of the moment when the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators change, which is a signal for a change in the monetary policy. The results obtained can be used to fine-tune the measures of the stabilization monetary policy while implementing the inflation targeting regime.

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