Макроэкономическая стабильность: теория и реальность

Abstract

This article explores the concept of macroeconomic stability originated from the theory of general economic equilibrium (GEE) by L. Walras. Modern macroeconomic models that do not contradict the GEE, a implement the principles of consistency of micro- and macroeconomic analysis, the interrelation of markets, and the effectiveness of market mechanism. Economic fluctuations generated by shocks are in dialectical unity with the state of equilibrium. The aim of macroeconomic policy is to maintain equilibrium (macroeconomic stability) through inflation targeting and effective public debt management. Within the framework of this policy a number of goals are met including the control over inflationary expectations, strengthening confidence in the central bank, and overcoming inflation. However, low inflation rates can produce liquidity traps, thus causing a need to adjust monetary policy and develop its new instruments. At the same time, the global crises of the 21st century, the Great Recession of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic, prompts to re-evaluate the contradictions between the theoretical concept of equilibrium and the real state of the economy, as well as measures needed to stabilize it during a recession. The policy of overcoming the crisis in 2020 includes large-scale discretionary fiscal and monetary stimulus according to Keynesian recipes, in the absence of which the loss of jobs, closure of enterprises, and lack of financial stability are inevitable. The gap between theory and reality, as it happened during the Great Depression almost a hundred years ago, once again raises the questions of further development of macroeconomics. The article may be of interest to teachers and students interested in the prospects for the development of scientific knowledge in this area.