Abstract
The authors analyze the information base of the elaborated forecasts and strategies for the timber complex development from the viewpoint of the territorial differentiation in resources and infrastructure availability. The structure of the harvested timber is aligned with the volume and quality characteristics of the wood assortments needed for production of the forecasted types of the final forest product. It is confirmed that the volume of the small-scale wood substance and waste products formed under clean cutting and also under production of board lumber and plywood, cannot be completely utilized within the production of slab materials and pellets. And in the eastern regions when the benefits for transportation to the European countries are cancelled it is unprofitable to process them. The article also gives estimation of the inner market forecast for the main types of forest products which has been attained with the calculations on the base of the inter-regional model , in comparison with the hypothesis built-in the Strategies of the timber complex development. The analysis is given for the main reasons of not fulfilling the tasks which have been put forward under developing the Strategies connected with the changes of the institutional and economic conditions of the timber complex functioning. Also, inflated expectations for the wooden house constructions are noted in the article.
Highlights
In this paper we look into several documents where factors and forecasts for the development of the timber complex in Russia are considered in middle-term and long-term perspective:
Low level of forest engineering is explained by decrease of the number of employed in this sphere
Broad implementation of innovations is considered as a priority direction of efficient use of forest resources
Summary
The model of forming forecast for developing certain sectors is used under elaborating strategic documents and represents methods of accounting conditions and management decisions which were partly taken from the soviet system of planning the development of the national economy. Large enterprises working at the European and Asian markets take into account additional demands from consumers and consider sawn wood as products of fixed size and quality These products can be used in construction activities without additional processing but the cost is higher, and this is what domestic consumers are not ready for. It is not possible to provide getting maximum of possible output of sawn wood because in many (and especially in small) enterprises they use outdated technologies, under decrease of qualitative characteristics of the raw products These facts, and the absence of consumers for industrial chips (processed waste products of sawmilling) negatively influence the bare cost of the products [12]. It is shown that the witnessed low level of technological acceptance of innovations refers to the fact that economic actors seriously lack clear understanding about connection of innovations with the profits increase due to investments in innovations
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