급변하는 환경에서의 인간의 의사결정과 상황파악

Abstract

ABSTRACT Technological encroachment provides human operators with flood of information that must be analyzed to understand the environment and make judgments that lead to strategic actions. Further, the environment is not static and therefore uncertain, changing its aspect dynamically. Complexity accompanied with its dynamics imposes substantial difficulty to human operators' task. Criticality of having situational understanding becomes more important than ever. Situational understanding requires the human operators possessing tacit knowledge in order for them to make the sense out of the situation while interacting with information from many heterogeneous sources, the notion of sensemaking. Sensemaking refers to the process of developing mental framework to assemble pieces of information representing different aspects of the environment that can be used to develop one's own actionable knowledge to implement their judgments in the uncertain environment. Therefore, judgment process and performance is a key component of sensemaking process. Among many judgment and decision making models, the lens model with its extension can be utilized to partially describe the judgmental aspect of sensemaking. One of the lens model parameters, unmodeled knowledge, can be a corresponding quantitative measure for the tacit knowledge that plays an important role in sensemaking. In this paper, a comprehensive literature for sensemaking is provided to formally define the notion of sensemaking in the military domain. Also, it is proposed that there is a crucial link between the sensemaking and human judgment process and performance from the lens model perspective. Potential implications for experimental framework are also proposed. Keyword: Sensemaking, Judgment, Lens model, Dynamic environment, Tacit knowledge