러시아-우크라이나 전쟁: 의미와 영향

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to explore the background and meaning of the Russian-Ukraine war, and to analyze its impact. The Russian-Ukrainian war bears a complex character, as suggested by what Russia calls ‘special military operation’. The war carries characteristics of proxy war in the geopolitical competition, identity conflicts reflecting concerns of losing Slavic identity, and thus ‘limited war’ that military victory should be limited. This multidimensional nature of the war has posed difficulties in understanding the feature of the war as well as its prospects and consequences.BR This study analyzes the nature of war from the perspectives of ‘special military operation’ as President Putin put it, geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West/U.S., and the competition between the development models that Russia and U.S. recognize as a main source of challenges against international order, as well as their own national security. In addition, this study focuses on the possible ‘domestic renewal’ in terms of competition for development models that is likely to occur in Russia in the form of ‘social reconstruction’ and ‘restrictions on freedom’ through and after the war.BR In this war no country may claim a victory. For Russia, achieving the minimum requirement for victory may lead it to emerging Ukraine national identity and continuing economic sanctions; for U.S, a victory against Russia may lead to a closer Sino-Russian relations that constitutes a major obstacle to US strategy towards China in the Asia-Pacific rim. The war may bring us a new international order; but both strategical and practical perspectives demand us to maintain ties with Russia.