Стратегические риски и проблемы кибербезопасности

Abstract

Purpose: To identify the current strategic stability problems associated with the destructive impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) on the basis of analysis and systematization according to various parameters of cyber risks and threats to international security and global stability that can reduce the level of strategic stability and to develop relevant proposals that can lay the foundation for creation of a deterrence policy in the ICT domain. Research method: analysis, synthesis and scientific forecasting, expert assessment, comparative analysis of the cyber domain within the framework of a systematic approach. Result: the article presents analysis and systematization risks and threats to international security and global stability emanating from the cyber sphere according to various parameters. The article proves the impact of the accelerated development of information and communication technologies (ICT) on strategic stability, and that ensuring the cybersecurity of nuclear weapons requires special attention. The global problems of strategic stability at the current stage are posed and the conclusions are that the protection of strategic weapons, early warning systems, air and missile defense, communications, command and control over nuclear weapons from harmful ICTs are the pressing global problems of our time. Specific scenarios of cyber threats leading to a decrease in the level of strategic stability below the necessary and sufficient level have been elaborated, and proposals have been formulated to minimize the corresponding escalation threats. Proposed measures can become a basis for a deterrence policy in the ICT domain, as it was done during the period of bipolarity with regard to nuclear weapons, and become the foundation for broader international agreements on arms control in the so-called nuclear information space of the future.