수산분야 통상정책의 경제적 파급영향 분석

Abstract

The impact of international trade policies on the fisheries sector is increasingly significant. However, there has been insufficient development of models to analyze the influence of external shocks on the fisheries industry. This study sets itself apart from existing research by creating a Harmonized System (HS) product-based general equilibrium model for fisheries trade that reflects the unique attributes of the South Korean fisheries sector. The study also conducts trade policy scenario analyses, taking into account the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) membership and the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) system.The results of the analysis demonstrate that when employing a product-differentiated model, the export value of individual products experiences a more substantial increase in comparison to the industry-level model. This finding indicates that the model incorporates the trade-enhancing effects stemming from the direct and indirect effects of each product. With regard to the consequences of implementing the TAC system, a decrease in domestic catch volume and an increase in fishery product prices are observed, implying that the introduction of the TAC system may potentially impact the domestic fishing production foundation.In comparison with other developed nations, the establishment and application of specialized trade policy models for the fisheries sector have not been adequately executed. The findings of this study may serve as a valuable instrument for quantitatively evaluating the ramifications of distinct fisheries trade policies.