경사제 피복재의 유지관리를 위한 추계학적 Markov 확률모형의 개발

Abstract

A stochastic Markov process (MP) model has been developed for evaluating the probability of failure of the armor unit of rubble-mound breakwaters as a function of time. The mathematical MP model could have been formulated by combining the counting process or renewal process (CP/RP) on the load occurrences with the damage process (DP) on the cumulative damage events, and applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. Transition probabilities have been estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) technique with the definition of damage level of armor units, and very well satisfies some conditions constrained in the probabilistic and physical views. The probabilities of failure have been also compared and investigated in process of time which have been calculated according to the variations of return period and safety factor being the important variables related to design of armor units of rubble-mound breakwater. In particular, it can be quantitatively found how the prior damage levels can effect on the sequent probabilities of failure. Finally, two types of methodology have been in this study proposed to evaluate straightforwardly the repair times which are indispensable to the maintenance of armor units of rubble- mound breakwaters and shown several simulation results including the cost analyses. 핵심용어: stochastic Markov process model, transition probability, damage level, armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters, probability of failure, ì¶”ê³„í•™ì  MP í™•ë¥ ëª¨í˜•, ì´í–‰í™•ë¥ , 피해수준, ê²½ì‚¬ì œ 피복재, 파괴확ë¥