마르코프 체인 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션과 베이지안 Bradley-Terry 모델을 적용한 배구 경기 결과 예측

Abstract

As information and communication technology develops, sports data also continues to expand quantitatively and grow qualitatively. Korea"s professional volleyball game also provides various data on game results to satisfy the various needs of spectators or viewers. However, in order to effectively use sports data, it is necessary to extract useful information using appropriate statistical methods. For this reason, many volleyball-related researchers tried to explain and predict volleyball game-related phenomena by applying various statistical models to extract useful information suitable for the purpose through volleyball game records. In other words, the statistical model for predicting the outcome of a volleyball match must reflect the ability of the state team, and the estimated result must also include uncertainty to be reasonable. For this reason, this study estimated the ability parameters of each team by applying the Bayesian Bradley-Terry with MCMC to the volleyball game data to estimate the results including information on uncertainty as well as reflecting the opponent"s ability. Afterwards, the estimated parameters were compared with the estimates of the general Bradley-Terry model and compared with the estimates of the Bayesian Bradley-Terry with MCMC to evaluate and discuss the effectiveness and limitations.