Европейский экономический и валютный союз: 20 лет спустя

Abstract

The authors identify structural and institutional problems of the European EMU that significantly aggravated after the global financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009, evaluate new approaches to the reform of EMU, reveal the main directions of action by the EU authorities to overcome its systemic crisis. The proposed classification of anticrisis measures in the post-2015 period includes: a) updated conceptual approaches of the ECB’s leadership to the strategy of a single monetary policy with an assessment of the results of its implementation; b) conceptual approaches and practical measures for structural reforms in EMU for the period from 2015 to 2025; and b) an action plan to strengthen the international role of the euro. Despite the EU’s ambitious goals, the euro could not outcompete the US dollar in the global monetary system. The stagnation of the international position of the euro is due to the dominant role of the US dollar in commodity markets, as well as its key role in the international lending and foreign exchange markets. Although London is part of the EU, its globally oriented financial markets are more closely linked to New York than to Frankfurt and Paris. A UK exit from the EU could negatively affect the Eurozone’s global competitiveness and significantly narrow the EU’s ability to attract financial resources on international capital markets. The risks of EU destabilization are also magnified by huge euro-denominated financial obligations cleared through London. In December 2018 the European Commission pushed a number of initiatives to strengthen the international role of the euro, including the completion of the Banking Union and the EU Capital Markets Union. However, as the experience of previous years shows, the EU countries do not demonstrate the necessary coherence to achieve their goals. The deterioration of the EU’s relations with the United States and Brexit are additional factors for the uncertainty of the further development of European integration processes in the monetary and financial sphere. The conclusion is made about the strategic and practical significance of the concept of a renewed consolidated EMU, implemented in order to level the accumulated internal and external imbalances in the euro area, and the transition to a model of sustainable economic growth in the region. The prospects of the European Union largely depend on the efficiency and adequacy of the measures taken by the EU authorities to neutralize new challenges and risks, resolve problems of economic integration, put into practice structural and institutional reform programs. Acknowledgements. The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project № 17-02-00347-OGN (“Development of a model for rational monetary and financial regulation in Russia in the context of increased instability of global finance”).