Системная модель долгосрочного технико-экономического развития

Abstract

The results of the research of dissemination of technical and economic paradigms
 in developed economies are given. A system model of long-term technical and
 economic development is developed. The model assumes the simultaneous
 existence in the economy of several subsystems of different technical and
 economic paradigms. Each techno-economic paradigm is a new stage
 of development and different from the previous paradigm of higher productivity.
 Each subsequent industrial techno-economic paradigm provides higher
 productivity due to higher capital intensity and energy intensity of production.
 In the post-industrial techno-economic paradigms the higher performance
 is provided at a lower capital intensity and energy intensity of production due
 to a higher volume of information used. Beginning, transition to domination, the
 beginning of the withering away of each paradigm is accompanied by the
 formation of an upward half-wave of Kondratieff cycle. Econometric models
 of Kondratieff cycles and econometric models of real GDP per capita is obtained,
 provided technical and economic paradigms in developed countries. The fourth
 techno-economic paradigm provides the real per capita GDP value from 1929
 to 3258 dollars Gehry-Hemis 1990. The fifth techno-economic paradigm provides
 a real GDP per capita value of 11,606 to 12,883 dollars Gehry-Hemis 1990. The
 sixth techno-economic paradigm provides a real GDP per capita value of 22 360
 to 28 385 dollars Gehry-Hemis 1990.