스마트관광 시대의 관광숙박업 영업 예측 모형

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 caused continuous damage worldwide, especially the smart tourism industry was hit directly by the blockade of sky roads and restriction of going out. At a time when overseas travel and domestic travel have decreased significantly, the number of tourist hotels that are closed and closed due to the continued deficit is increasing. Therefore, in this study, licensing data from the Ministry of Public Administration and Security were collected and visualized to understand the operation status of the tourism and lodging industry. The machine learning classification algorithm was applied to implement the business status prediction model of the tourist hotel, the performance of the prediction model was optimized using the ensemble algorithm, and the performance of the model was evaluated through 5-Fold cross-validation. It was predicted that the survival rate of tourist hotels would decrease somewhat, but the actual survival rate was analyzed to be no different from before COVID-19. Through the prediction of the business status of the hotel industry in this paper, it can be used as a basis for grasping the operability and development trends of the entire tourism and lodging industry.