사고등급별 고속도로 교통사고 처리시간 예측모형 개발

Abstract

Nonrecurrent congestion of freeway was primarily caused by incident. The main cause of incident was known as a traffic accident. Therefore, accurate prediction of traffic incident clearance time is very important in accident management. Traffic accident data on freeway during year 2008 to year 2014 period were analyzed for this study. KNN(K-Nearest Neighbor) algorithm was hired for developing incident clearance time prediction model with the historical traffic accident data. Analysis result of accident data explains the level of accident significantly affect on the incident clearance time. For this reason, incident clearance time was categorized by accident level. Data were sorted by classification of traffic volume, number of lanes and time periods to consider traffic conditions and roadway geometry. Factors affecting incident clearance time were analyzed from the extracted data for identifying similar types of accident. Lastly, weight of detail factors was calculated in order to measure distance metric. Weight was calculated with applying standard method of normal distribution, then incident clearance time was predicted. Prediction result of model showed a lower prediction error(MAPE) than models of previous studies. The improve model developed in this study is expected to contribute to the efficient highway operation management when incident occurs. Keywords accident level; freeway incident; Incident clearance time; KNN(K-Nearest Neighbor) model; weight ; 사고등급; 고속도로 돌발상황; 사고처리시간; KNN모형; 가중치 Language: ko