Аналіз факторів банкрутства великих підприємств України

Abstract

Introduction. The results of the author’s previous study of financial position of large firms in Ukraine indicate an anomalously high percentage of zombie firms and firms with negative shareholder equity among them, which generally imply chronic solvency problems. Such firms, however, continue their existence for prolonged periods of time seemingly against creditors’ best interest, which, as presumed by the classic works of corporate finance, should initiate the bankruptcy procedure in order to minimize their losses. Problem Statement. Research into the motivation of Ukrainian creditors for initiating a bankruptcy procedure towards big industrial firms in Ukraine. Purpose. Determining factors which cause bankruptcies among large firms in Ukraine using econometric modelling. Materials and Methods. Logit regressions based on panel data of a selection of 286 predominantly large Ukrainian enterprises for 2006-2020. Results. The first, extended (32 independent variables), iteration of the model indicates that bankruptcy probability rises with the increase in off-shore capital and shareholder equity, as well as with the increase of accounts receivables and long-term bank loans. Bankruptcy probability drops with the increase in accounts payable for goods, works and services , all types of income, investments in fixed assets and depreciation. Abridged iteration of the model, which had all of the non-significant variables excluded, verifies the preliminary conclusions and allows to pinpoint less obvious factors: in particular, the probability of bankruptcy depends insignificantly on the performance of the enterprise. Conclusions. Probability of bankruptcy among big industrial firms in Ukraine is more dependent on the percentage of the off-shore capital they possess and their allegiance towards FIG, which, along with high percentage of related parties’ loans and the aforementioned extra-high percentage of zombie firms and firms with negative shareholder equity, indicates the non-market nature of credit relations with participation of such firms. Keywords: bankruptcy; bankruptcy