Эконометрические методы прогнозирования производственных отраслей АПК

Abstract

Aim. Development and justification of the calculation and analytical tool and adaptation of the methodology of its use to the laws of the development of individual branches of agricultural production and scientific interpretation of promising directions of their development. Materials and Methods. In the course of the work, econometric models were used, the main ones of which should be considered correlation and regression, including ridge regression, simulation and trend. The method of simulation modeling was supplemented by the method of expert assessments. Calculations of econometric models were carried out using the SPSS Statistics, Mathcad packages and the FAR-AREA 4.0 software tool. Results. Calculations using econometric models allowed us to develop and justify three author's scenarios for the development of sunflower production in the region: inertial, moderate and optimistic, in the context of the implementation of an export-oriented strategy in the agro-industrial complex for the period up to 2023. Conclusion. To implement the conditions of all three variants of the forecast of sunflower production, it is necessary to increase the use of elite seeds of domestic production and imported seeds in the structure of crops, as well as to ensure a positive dynamics of the introduction of plant protection products per 1 hectare of sown area, which in the future will contribute to the growth of crop yields. The forecast parameters of sunflower yield obtained by us in 2023 in the Rostov region for all three variants are realistic and correspond to the production conditions of the region.