우리나라 주택가격의 국면별 시계열 특성 비교

Abstract

This study analyzes how the time series characteristics of two phases (upwards and downwards) in Korea’s housing price cycle are different. Two phases are identified by the algorithm suggested by Bry and Boschan. The minimum period of each phase is set to 6 months. The target data are the Korea National House Price Index and the house price index of seven metropolitan cities. Data was collected from November 2003 to June 2020. The findings are as follows; First, the whole country and the seven metropolitan cities have their own distinctive cyclical features. Second, statistical properties, such as high volatility, skewness, kurtosis, and no n-normality, are getting prominent in the upwards phase. Third, the estimated AR coefficients indicates that dynamic effects of market shocks on the housing price changes are stronger and longer in the upward phase. Fourth, the volatility clustering mainly emerges in the period of the upward phase.