Анализ структурных сдвигов: обзор пространственных версий

Abstract

The article presents the genesis of spatial shift-share analysis. The author focuses on the links of spatial versions of shift-share analysis with the classical one, which is not just a starting point for them from a historical point of view, but retains the status of their constituent element. The author describes spatial versions that integrate spatially lagged variables into the classical version and keep the national economy as a reference, and a version that is used in conjunction with the classical one in terms of content and defines the economy of the neighborhood of the region as a reference. For each spatial version, the total number of alternative structural decompositions and the number of decompositions that provide estimates of only simple industry mix and competitive effects with a transparent interpretation are defined. It’s shown that the development of a spatial shift-share analysis is driven by the idea of using multi-contextual framework (national, neighborhood and regional) for studying models of regional economic growth. The author describes the logic of the shift-share analysis, carried out in accordance with the spatial version, which introduces an autonomous identity for each level of the spatial hierarchy. A brief review of papers devoted to the study of economic growth models of Russian regions based on the shift-share analysis, including its spatial versions, is given, and a prospect for developing the results obtained in these papers is proposed