Abstract
In this study, we tried to estimate the future operational reserves required for steady state in year 2030 using the probabilistic approach. To get the probability distribution of the reserve capacity requirement, we used the nonparametric estimation method, kernel density estimation. As the result, the frequency control reserve capacity is required to be about 800MW based on 2030, and the reserve level that needs to be secured due to the difference between 1 hour dispatch plan and 5 minutes actual load in the intraday market in 2030 is estimated about 1,400MW. In addition, the reserves that needs to be considered when unit commitment planning on the day ahead should include the PV generation forecast error distribution and the distribution of demand forecast errors also. We were estimated them by using the convolution, and we could get the result the operational reserves about 5,000∼ 7,500MW when establishing the day ahead unit commitment plan by 2030.
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