ПАРАМЕТРЫ ПОЛИТИКИ ИНТЕРВЕНЦИЙ НА РЫНКЕ ПШЕНИЦЫ

Abstract

The article solves the problem of updating the parameters of the policy of purchasing and commodity interventions in the Russian wheat grain market. These parameters are the recommended range of the intervention fund size and the corresponding price interval, outside which interventions are necessary (commodity beyond the upper boundary and purchase beyond the lower boundary). The applied methodology is based on the updated simulation model of the intervention policy on the wheat market, previously developed at the Center for Agro-Food Policy of the RANEPA. Calculations with its help are carried out using the series of average monthly wheat prices (both domestic and foreign) for 2012–2020. When updating the model, the approach to calculating the volume of intervention sales (purchases) has been revised: it is now based on the difference reproduced by the model between gross sales of wheat grain on the domestic market in the current month with and without interventions. This novelty adapts the model to a situation where the state levels the impact of interventions on the volume of foreign trade in wheat with the help of appropriate shortterm foreign trade policy measures. It is shown that interventions effectively reduce the coefficient of variation of prices, smoothing their upper and lower peaks, with the size of the intervention fund in the range of 0.9–2.7 million metric tons. Interventions are recommended when the average Russian prices for food grains of wheat of the third class (monthly average) go beyond the range from 9 to 12 thousand rubles/ton. The example of the Krasnodar kray shows that the difference in the price dynamics between regional wheat markets in some cases can cause the interventions to entail effects conflicting with their goal. The study supports the expediency of harmonizing the intervention policy with the policy of regulating the volume of cross-border operations with wheat. The necessity of studies aimed at creating, in the long term, institutional and infrastructural conditions for conducting regional commodity and purchasing interventions in the wheat market, primarily in the port regions, is argued. To ensure the effectiveness of such interventions, it is necessary to establish a system for tracking the origin and use of commercial lots of grain, including wheat.