동맹국의 정찰위성 보유가 확장억지에 미치는 영향

Abstract

A revolution in military affairs(RMA) is expected to have a significant impact on militarized interstate disputes. Recent researches show that ballistic missiles, unmanned attack vehicles, and drones affect many aspects of militarized disputes. However, there is few research on the effect of the RMA on extended deterrence. In this study we analyze the effect of military surveillance technology on extended deterrence. In particular, we focus on the presence or absence of allies with reconnaissance satellites because reconnaissance satellite is a technology that can effectively alleviate uncertainty of information compared to other reconnaissance assets. Considering Fearon’s(1995) argument that wars occur because of uncertainty of information and commitment problem, reconnaissance satellites may be able to alleviate these problems with satellites characteristics such as high durability, stability, and few international legal restriction. Results of this study demonstrate that states having allies with reconnaissance satellites capabilities are less likely to be targeted in large scale militarized disputes with 100 or more casualties than states without having allies with reconnaissance satellites capabilities.