태풍 모의를 통한 해상 설계풍속 추정

Abstract

Long-term measured wind data are absolutely necessary to estimate extreme offshore wind speed. However, it is almost impossible to collect offshore wind measured data. Therefore, typhoon simulation is widely used to analyze offshore wind conditions. In this paper, 74 typhoons which affected the western sea of Korea during 1978-2012(35 years) were simulated using Holland(1980) model. The results showed that 49.02 m/s maximum wind speed affected by BOLAVEN(1215) at 100 m heights of HeMOSU-1 (Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unit 1) was the biggest wind speed for 35 years. Meanwhile, estimated wind speeds were compared with observed data for MUIFA, BOLAVEN, SANBA at HeMOSU-1. And to estimate extreme wind speed having return periods, extreme analysis was conducted by assuming 35 annual maximum wind speed at four site(HeMOSU-1, Gunsan, Mokpo and Jeju) in western sea of the Korean Peninsular to be Gumbel distribution. As a results, extreme wind speed having 50-year return period was 50 m/s, that of 100-year was 54.92 m/s at 100 m heights, respectively. The maximum wind speed by BOLAVEN could be considered as a extreme winds having 50-year return period.