Abstract
Objective: To scientifically substantiate and develop forecasting basis of emergency situations consequences on railway transport. Methods: Theoretical generalization and analysis of the current knowledge and understanding of oil spills forecasting, a geographic information system. Results: In accordance with the analysis of statistical data, the emergency situation during the transportation of oil and oil products by rail are associated more with mechanical damage to special tanks and release of petroleum products into the environment with subsequent ignition, or by contamination of land or water areas. One of the key safety components on rail transport of petroleum products is the prediction of possible emergency situations, modelling of development processes of the strait of petroleum products and risk assessment. Based on the analysis of existing methods of calculation of the consequences strait of petroleum products, as well as features of the simulation of the expiry with use of modern software such as Autodesk Inventor, ArcGIS, Surfer, the proposed methodological framework for prediction of consequences of emergency situations on objects of railway transport. The paper shows the opportunity on the basis of threedimensional models of the terrain in the zone of emergency, by means of geographic information modeling to determine the shape of the spill of petroleum product of a multifactorial consideration of the different parameters determining the quantitative and qualitative sides of the processes of the strait of oil products will allow to improve the accuracy of predictive assessments, and the use of modern IT-technologies to provide efficiency calculations. Practical importance: Applicationof the proposed approach will determine the quality of any system of support of decision-making, especially when planning rescue operations, including in the justification of the choice of those or other technologies of their conducting and use of various rescue equipment.
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