Аналіз сценаріїв розвитку атомної енергетики України

Abstract

We present results of the analysis of development of atomic generation in Ukraine in the context of substantiating ways to optimize country's electric power balance under conditions of decommissioning or extension of the life of existing nuclear power units of atomic power plants. It is emphasized that the nuclear power industry of Ukraine is a basic component in its energy supply, producing more than 40% of electricity. It is noted that the relevance of this topic is caused by the extreme importance of ensuring the energy safety of Ukraine, especially since nuclear power has become a decisive factor in Ukraine's uncompromising struggle for energy independence. The energy strategies of Ukraine and various scenarios of the development of nuclear power along with other energy-producing sectors are analyzed and compared. The restrictions and barriers hindering the development of nuclear power industry in our country are analyzed in detail. The main groups of barriers are presented according to the causes of their occurrence and the nature of manifestation, as well as other signs that must be taken into account when predicting the development of nuclear power. It is noted that the list of barriers can be supplemented, and their composition can be changed depending on the problem being solved and the hierarchical level under consideration. It is noted that the development of nuclear-power complex in Ukraine is taking place under conditions of the complication of its external and internal relationships, fundamental changes in the nature and structure of the economy, globalization, and acceleration of scientific and technological progress. According to the criteria of profitability, environmental friendliness, reliability, and provision with resources for the electric power industry, scenarios providing for the extension of life of nuclear power plants are much more acceptable than those providing for their decommissioning. It was determined that, among the important conditions for extending the life of nuclear power units, one should diversify the supply of fresh nuclear fuel.