Abstract
The relevance of the article is due to the fact that the introduction of new technologies by an oil company requires significant investments and scientific research. This proves the importance of forming an effective investment strategy aimed at ensuring long-term business development. The current state of investments in the oil sector is characterized not only by significant amounts of capital investments, but also by those significant transformations in technological and economic aspects that cause situations of uncertainty and risk. The article proposes a methodology for as-sessing the investment risks of an oil company in the refining segment. The proposed methodology makes it possible to make a more informed choice of strategic investment directions, considering risk factors. Currently, thereare numerous studies on the assessment of uncertainty and risk associ-ated with investment decisions. At the same time, it should be noted that the position of the scien-tific community on the development of appropriate methodologies for assessing, accounting, and forecasting uncertainty and risk factors is not uniform. Within the framework of the proposed methodology, investment risk is defined as the probability of loss of investments and income. The purpose of the study is to develop methodological tools for assessing the investment risks of an oil company in the refining segment. The authors of the work carried out a systematization of invest-ment risks in the refining segment. It is proposed to use a modified Bayes formula to assess investment risks. The developed methodology for assessing investment risks is based on determining those strategic investment directions, the implementation of which will ensure a minimum level of expected losses, considering the assessment of the generalized risk level. Clarifying risk priorities will make it possible to develop a risk response program in a timely manner, thereby minimizing the potential manifestation of critical risk factors and possible losses of the oil company in the implementation of strategic investment directions.
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