Abstract
At the present stage of geological exploration, the issue of assessing the hydrocarbon resource base of promising facilities is not relevant on a deterministic basis, but using probabilistic assessments and geological risks, which is especially important when assessing investment attractiveness, especially when introducing international projects. Geological risk is associated with the uncertainty of the geological model of an oil and gas perspective object and does not depend on the absolute value of the estimated resources. Based on the analysis of world experience, preliminary studies of this issue in Ukraine and features of the geological structure and oil and gas content of the Eastern oil and gas region of Ukraine, the main geological risks are identified: - the risk of the existence of a trap - the probability that there is a structural or other form in which the position of the explosives may be contained, the reliability of the release of the trap according to available geological and geophysical data; - the risk of the collector's existence is the probability that the breed having sufficient porosity, permeability and spatial distribution in the predicted section of the cut is present and maintained in the process of development of mobile explosives; - the risk of the existence of a tire - the probability that promising in oil and gas bearing deposits overlapping rocks are impervious to predicted hydrocarbons and able to hold the deposit; - risk of regional (zonal) oil and gas - the probability that within the oil and gas prospect facility there are hydrocarbons in a specific productive horizon. For a more confident and unified determination of the risk factors for the existence of a trap, its dependence on the main characteristics of the predicted trap was developed. In addition to the type of trap, differentiation is performed depending on the depth of the object, its amplitude and the number of complicated tectonic disturbances and their type. In addition, recommendations have been developed for the use of methodological methods for determining the risks in assessing the hydrocarbon resources of oil and gas prospecting facilities, which will increase the reliability of the assessment of the resource base of promising objects in the Eastern oil and gas region of Ukraine. Key words: hydrocarbon, geological works, important evaluation, naftagazperspective objects, evaluation of risks, perspective resources References Galkin S.V. 2012. Methodology of accounting for geological risks at the stage of exploration and exploration of oil fields. Bulletin PNRPU. Geology. Oil and gas and mining. № 4. P. 23-32.https://doi.org/10.15593/2224-9923/2012.4.3 Кerimov V.Y., Bondarev А.V., Mustaev R.N., Hоshtaria V.N. 2017. Estimation of geological risks in searches and exploration of hydrocarbon deposits. «Oil industry». № 8. P. 36-41. Poliakov А.А. Systemic approach to the analysis and reduction of risk in the search and exploration of oil and gas fields. Oil and gas geology. Theory and practice. Т.11. №1. 22 p. www. URL: http://ngtp.ru/rub/3/3_2016.pdfhttps://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/3_2016 Popadiuk I. 2003. Theoretical bases for assessing geological risks in the oil industry according to world standards. Oil and gas industry. № P. 9-15. Kharchenko M.V., Vakarchuk S.G., Kitchka O.A. Accounting for geological risks practice while evaluating resource base of hydrocarbon Usage in Ukraine. Prospects for investing. Materials of the Third Scientific and Practical Conference (October 4-7. 2016. Truskavets). State commission of Ukraine on mineral resources (SCMR). К. SCMR. 2016. P. 243-246. Fokin 2011. Managing Exploration Risks & Uncertainties. https://rogtecmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/05_TNK-BP_Managing_Exploration_Risks.pdf Aigbedion I., Iyayi S.E., Agbeboh G.U. Prospect assessment and risk analysis: Example from Niger Delta, Nigeria Basin. International Journal of Physical Sciences. December. Vol. 3 (12). Р. 293-298. Colson T. Fault Seal Analysis: Constraining Fault Seal Risk Using Seismic Velocities. AAPG Search and Discovery Article #41789. Posted April 11. 15 p. Cunha A. 2011. Economic and Risk Analysis Applied to Petroleum Engineering. Recent Developments and Application Examples. SPE Distinguished Lecture Program presentation. 36 p. Mannini A., Rawstron P., Chai S.N., Spedding A. De-Risking a Gas Development Using Geophysical Methods. AAPG Search and Discovery Article #41086. Posted November 30. 2012. 16 p. Rose P.R. 2001. Risk Analysis and Management of petroleum exploration Ventures. AAPG Methods in Exploration Series. No. 12. Р. 172. The ССОР Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Petroleum Prospects. http:www.geosint.com/images/stories/geointelligence/technical/modeling/NORAD_RiskA.pdf White D.A. 1993. Geologic risking guide for prospects and plays: AAPG Bulletin. v 77. Р. 2048-2061.https://doi.org/10.1306/BDFF8FCE-1718-11D7-8645000102C1865D
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