К вопросу о волновой теории экономической устойчивости

Abstract

The article attempts to study the elements of the wave theory of the development of the world economy. The author puts forward a concept of the category of economic stability and identification of individual phases of the development of large economic systems. Each phase is described by a deterministic composition of indicators (development factors), for which the areas of their permissible values are set for a certain period of time. The output of the parameters of the state of the economic system beyond the range of acceptable values is a signal for the next “phase transition”. Then the concept of “phase” acquires some meaningful content in the form of the dynamics of the specified values of the estimated parameters. A possible scheme (algorithm) of the “phase transition” in the trajectory of large and complex systems is proposed on the example of the national economy using elements of the theory of self-organization. The self-organization of the economic system is proposed to be considered as a reaction to the change of the “phases of economic stability” in the form of transformation procedures operating at the time of the analysis of the management functions of the national economy into new ways of action of the management system corresponding to the new state of the macro environment. At the same time, the possibility of transformation of the organizational structure of the government of the state is not excluded, i.e. the possibility of, among other things, structural adaptation of the national economy is allowed.