Моделирование пространственного распределения пассажиропотоков междугородних автобусных маршрутов

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the quantitative description of the spatial distribution of passenger traffic based on the classical gravity model on the example of interurban bus service between Yekaterinburg and other cities of the Sverdlovsk region. The influence of factors such as population, distance between localities, and ticket price on the volume of passenger traffic was studied. As a result of the correlation and regression analysis, it was found that both the distance between localities and the ticket price can be used as a measure of the remoteness of localities. However, the quality of the resulting regression model does not change. The spatial distribution of interurban bus passenger traffic depends on the measure of distance of localities from each other and the size of their population. Moreover, the size of the population is a much more significant factor than the measure of distance. From a practical point of view, this means that when predicting passenger traffic, demographic factors must first be taken into account.