Модель взаємодії структурних елементів фінансового ринку України

Abstract

The aim of the article is to improve the methodology of studying the financial market of Ukraine, analyzing the interaction between the components of the financial market, studying the reaction of the components of the financial market to sudden changes and forecasting the behavior of the structural elements of the financial market. The financial market plays a decisive role in the modern market economy of Ukraine, providing a mechanism for the redistribution of capital between creditors and investors through intermediaries based on the principles of supply and demand. The development of the financial market and the interaction of its components is the subject of research by many scholars, whose works laid the foundation for a modern understanding of how financial markets function and how they affect the economy as a whole. Despite a significant number of studies on the functioning and development of financial market infrastructure, many aspects of the interaction of market entities in Ukraine remain unexplored, especially in changing external and internal conditions. To model the interaction of market participants in the financial market of Ukraine, an algorithm has been developed, on the basis of which the interaction of structural elements of the financial market of Ukraine has been analyzed, the reaction of the components of the financial market to sharp changes has been studied, and forecasts of the behavior of its structural elements have been made. The study uses a combination of fundamental conceptions of the financial market and the methodology of expert evaluation to determine the most significant statistical indicators that characterize its constituent components. The cause-and-effect relationships between these components are analyzed, the nature of their mutual relationship is revealed. ARIMA models were used to forecast key indicators of the financial market. On the basis of vector auto-regressive models, the dynamic adaptation of market components to shocks is analyzed. The study showed that the credit and interbank markets show less susceptibility to external factors and can even serve as impetus for changes in other structural elements of the financial market. The results of the study can be used for: development of a more effective policy of financial market regulation; development of new methods and tools of influence on the functioning of financial market entities.