ВКЛАД НГМС РК В СЕЛЕВУЮ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ СТРАНЫ

Abstract

In this paper, the scientific activities of the National Hydrometeorological Service of Kazakhstan to study the origin, development and degradation of debris flows, carried out with the aim of reducing the damage caused by debris flows, are presented over a long period. The features of precipitation, emptying of surface and intraglacial reservoirs, mineralogical and granulometric compositions of debris rocks, geomorphological conditions of debris flow formation, recurrence and characteristics of debris flows were studied. Methods for computation of the viscosity and plasticity of debris-flow mass, used in mathematical modeling of debris flow formation have been developed. A method for ultra-short-term forecasting of catastrophic debris flows caused by rainfall, based on data on preliminary soil moisture, the position of the zero isotherm and seasonal snow line, and current actual meteorological information has been developed. The feasibility of this method is tens of times greater than the feasibility of the method for short-term forecasting of debris flows caused by rainfall, which was used previously. The computation of the characteristics of debris flows is based on the discovery of an ambiguous dependence between the density of debris-flow mass and the slope of way of debris flow. A debris-flow hazard map for the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan has been developed. A concept for protection against debris flows of Almaty city under climate changing has been proposed. A geological and geomorphological method has been developed for determining the genesis of fan, which allows optimizing the work on assessing the risk of urbanization of territories located in the mountain and foothill zones.