РОЗПІЗНАВАННЯ КРИЗОВИХ ЯВИЩ ТА МЕТОДИКА ЇХ ВИЯВЛЕННЯ

Abstract

The article considers the theoretical and methodological justification and grouping of existing methods for recognizing crisis phenomena and the possibilities of their detection. The study reveals that while examining existing methods and models for assessing bankruptcy and forecasting the crisis of agricultural producers, it was established that the discriminatory models based on linear dependence have limitations, which do not clearly reflect on the reliability of the crisis in agricultural enterprises due to the seasonal nature of their operations. Attention is paid to the use of logistic-regression models, which are based on the binary result and, accordingly, allow to obtain calculations with a higher probability, provides a higher probability of forecasts. It was found that as a result, the diagnosis of the crisis in the company should be carried out according to a clear algorithm. It is suggested that current system of crisis indicators at the enterprise is not fully focused on its early recognition. It reflects the inertial orientation of the planned economy to manage only the processes of consistent and "steady" development, while in a market economy, states of recession and rise, development and decline alternate. This dictates the need to develop new synthetic indicators in order to more accurately and timely determine the probability and timing of crises. Of great importance is not only the system of indicators that reflect the main signs of the crisis, but also the methodology of their design and practical use. In the current management mechanism, this is its weakest link, as the methodology of crisis recognition should permeate all aspects of this process: purpose, indicators, their use in situation analysis, the practical value of crisis prediction and more. The lack of unity in the interpretation of the essence on the concept of "crisis in the enterprise" makes it difficult to identify the crisis. The described set of methods indicates a variety of approaches to diagnosing the crisis in enterprises, but it is a priori impossible to say which of them is the most suitable for studying the problem in agricultural enterprises.