Abstract

본 연구에서는 빈도분석을 이용하여 획득한 확률강우량의 시간분포를 결정할 때 극치강우사상의 시간분포 특성을 반영하는 강우시간 분포 방법을 제시하였다. 극치강우사상에 대하여 강우집중시간과 강우집중시간 동안 발생하는 강우량의 총강우량 대비 비율을 분석하여 설계강우량에 대한 강우시간분포를 구성하였다. 개발된 강우시간분포의 적용성을 검증하기 위하여 서울지점에 대하여 기존의 방법인 Huff 방법과 Yen & Chow 방법 및 SCS방법의 결과와 비교 분석하였다. 일반적인 강우시간분포 방법인 Huff 방법과 Yen & Chow 방법은 극치강우사상의 시간분포 특성을 반영하기에는 너무 평활화하는 한계를 보였다. SCS방법의 경우 강우분포가 지나치게 중앙집중 되는 단점을 보였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 방법에 따른 강우시간분포는 실제 극치강우사상의 시간분포특성을 잘 반영하는 것으로 판단된다. In this study, a new approach to design the time distribution of probable rainfall is suggested to reflect the characteristics of the temporal variability of extreme rainfall events. Time of rainfall concentration and quantile characteristics of the intense rainfall period are analyzed to form the time distribution of designed storms. The developed approach was applied for Seoul to verify its applicability with Huff method, Yen & Chow method, and SCS method. Traditional approaches have limitations that the temporal distributions of rainfall using Huff method and the Yen & Chow method are too smooth to reflect extreme storms. The temporal distributions of rainfall using the SCS method is over concentrated at center. The suggested method demonstrated that it illustrated well of the characteristics of time distribution of extreme rainfall events.

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