Развивающиеся страны в новом уравнении посткризисного мироустройства

Abstract

The authors posit that a given world order for analytical purposes may be regarded as a large self-developing system in which developing countries form a massive subsystem (DC subsystem). And the survival of the entire Large System in its unique essence crucially depends on a certain state and position of this subsystem. The article puts forward a number of theoretical propositions about the regularities of the successive change of the world order systems. Possible vectors and expected limits of changes in the state of the “DC subsystem” in the new equation of the post-crisis world order are shown. The authors conclude that the intensity of competition between global centers of power for influence in the emerging world order will increase over the next decade. In these conditions, developing countries, despite their heterogeneity and increasing differentiation, can exert a certain influence on the course of this struggle and on the design of the structures of the emerging world order. The situation of rising instability and confrontational geopolitical environment in the world after February 2022 will not bypass developing regions. The West will seek to drive Russia and China into a “geopolitical box” in the short term, and in the medium and long term it will aim to reduce its perimeter. Intensive development of a wide range of relations with developing countries is an important condition to successfully counter the Western aggression. Apart from directly counteracting the efforts of the rival, Moscow and Beijing will systematically work towards the formation of norms, rules and institutions of the post-crisis world order. The most important condition for the successful promotion of Russian interests in Asia, Africa and Latin America is the understanding and pragmatic consideration of the assessments and vision of the developing countries themselves of their own interests in this emerging world order.