Миграции населения российской Арктики: модели, маршруты, результаты

Abstract

Population migration continues to be the main factor affecting the population dynamics in the Russian Arctic. The article discusses the theoretical provisions that reveal the essence of population migration, presents the main migration theories that explain the mobility of the population in the Arctic conditions. The object of the study is 75 urban and municipal districts of the Russian Arctic. The research focuses on the population migration and its impact on the population of the Russian Arctic. The authors propose a method for studying migration processes by analyzing municipal statistics and directions of movement based on social network data. The method reveals the main migration flows and patterns of population movement in the Arctic regions in 2012—2019. Based on the identified trends, the authors forecast migration dynamics and its impact on the population. Spatial analysis shows that current migration processes in the Arctic are the result of a complex combination of natural, historical, social and economic causes. Using data of the project “The virtual population of Russia”, the authors identify the main routes of population movement in the Arctic regions. The research reveals that residents of urban districts most often move to Moscow and St. Petersburg, and the ones of urban districts — to regional centers. The analysis shows that medium and large cities are of particular importance in migration processes. They are intermediate links of migration routes from the Arctic territories to federal and regional capitals located outside the Arctic. The authors describe three models of migration processes, depending on the age and sex composition of the migrating population and the stages of territory development.