Экономика Пакистана – причины и последствия замедленного роста

Abstract

Immediate causes of Pakistan’s economy lagging behind the economies of neighboring countries, such as Bangladesh, India, and China, in the first quarter of the current century lie in a mixture of internal and external circumstances. Primarily, it is the state’s involvement in the “war on terror” that unfolded after the events of September 11, 2001, as well as exogenous natural shocks and financial policy with a built-in dependence on external sources of credit. The deep underlying factors of slower growth include the fundamental immutability of the social structure, the dominance of conservative capitalism, the seizure of the state by elites, which seek short-term enrichment, the transformation of Pakistan into a kind of “rentier state”. Nevertheless, the country has certain potential for development. Firstly, a huge young population, which allows for the use of the so-called demographic dividend. Secondly, the state’s favorable geographical location that may help Pakistan to become a bridge between Central and East Asia, on the one hand, and the Near and Middle East, on the other. This advantage has already been partially realized through the implementation of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) investment project. Thirdly, Pakistan’s natural resources are not sufficiently explored and deposits of not only oil, natural gas, and coal, but also metal ores and rare earth minerals can be discovered. In the middle term, Pakistan may embark on the path of accelerating economic growth and become – among other achievements – one of Russia’s important partners in Asia.