기후변화를 고려한 미래 목표연도 확률강우량의 앙상블 예측

Abstract

This study proposed a practical approach to estimate design rainfalls that can be applied to design reference year using the relationships among distribution parameters, annual rainfalls estimated from GCMs(Global Circulation Models), and annual maximum rainfalls observed at gauging stations, leading to consider climate change. The highlight of this study is to estimate distribution parameters through regression models with annual rainfalls as a causal factor. The proposed model was applied to estimated ensemble design rainfalls with 24-hr duration in built-up design reference years of 2020 and 2030 at 10 stations considering the uncertainty induced by emission scenarios and GCMs. The overall results indicated that the design rainfalls of Gangneung, Daejeon, Seoul, and Sokcho in 2020 and 2030 are higher than those in 2009(assumed as the current), the design rainfalls of Gwangju, Seosan, and Jeju in 2020 and 2030 are very close to the current, and the design rainfalls of Busan, Mokpo, and Daegu in 2020 and 2030 are lower than the current. It is considered that the trend component of the annual maximum rainfalls is incorporated into the process of estimating design rainfalls. The proposed method can provide design rainfalls in the next 10 more years in which the effect of climate change is reflected, and thus may suggest useful reference or alternatives for the hydrologic plan and management.